The purists will not be purring on the prospect of the seven ITV races on Saturday – there needs to be some class-downtime between the Cheltenham Pageant and Aintree’s Grand Nationwide assembly, so let’s not be too snobby about it – however that will not cease me taking a look.
I am going to stick my snout in wherever within the pursuit of some quid.
That mentioned, I’m going to go away the ten all-weather terrestrial races from Lingfield and Newcastle on Good Friday till I do know the ultimate fields, as a result of the draw and tempo concerns are clearly very important betting elements in that sphere.
The Haydock contests on ITV on Saturday are all price 35k, being sequence’ finals, and it seems to be just like the monitor will get some first rate floor for as soon as with the nice and cozy climate sweeping the nation within the first half of the week.
It’s at the moment mushy, however might be absolutely taking a look at good mushy at worst come the weekend. Possibly even good.
An ante-post punting upside of the wonderful money on provide is that we must be fairly assured most will flip up on the day, fitness-permitting (in opposition to that nonetheless, I suppose most trainers final week would not have bargained for such first rate floor at Haydock).
Situations proper for King horse to thrive at Haydock
Getting a run in your cash just isn’t sure to be the case with Dino Velvet within the 1m7f144yd handicap hurdle (14:05), as he additionally has the choice of the grandly-named Scottish Champion Hurdle at Plumpton a day later, however I’m advised Haydock is the plan until the bottom there may be too testing (which it does not appear like being until the forecasts are ridiculously improper), so I’m joyful to facet with him.
For what it’s price, Adrian Heskin is already jocked up, too.
Again him at 14/1 each-way, three locations, with the Betfair Sportsbook. 12s can be superb, too.
I do know there are at the moment 16 runners and we may get 4 locations come the weekend if 12 or so are confirmed on Thursday morning.
However I would like the place angle on facet given the choice’s profile, and this race may very well reduce up a contact, for all I mentioned in regards to the prize cash earlier.
Gipsy De Choisel is entered at Ffos Las on Thursday – although Da Vinci Hand and Caswell Bay had been taken out of their respective engagements that day on Tuesday morning – whereas mud-lover Eamon An Cnoic is entered Carlisle on Saturday.
Whisper it quietly, however this Dino Velvet has shades of the mighty Singlefarmpayment about him, in that he’s on an extended dropping run since netting a brace within the spring of 2019 and he most likely ought to have received a few occasions since, although to be honest he has by no means traded at lower than 3.185/40 in-running throughout his dry spell, not like the mighty Farm (although he hit odds-on within the run thrice earlier in his profession and was chinned).
However absolutely the handicapper has given him each likelihood now he has dropped in to a mark of 125, some 10lb decrease than he was after ending second to Verdana Blue within the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April 2019.
As I mentioned, there was loads of dropping water flowing below the bridge since then however the key to this horse is a strongly-run race on good floor, and he seems to be like getting that off his lowest mark since successful at Market Rasen off 122 two years in the past.
His solely begin at this monitor resulted in a sixth off a mark of 135 within the always-ultra aggressive Swinton Hurdle right here and he ran the most effective race of his marketing campaign when fourth to runaway winner Millers Financial institution at Newbury final time.
I discussed Singlefarmpayment earlier as Dino Velvet may be an equally irritating kind, typically going lacking within the center a part of his races, and that was once more the case at Newbury, a race by which he acquired going all too late from the rear.
It may nicely be that connections are toying with first-time headgear with the horse to assist him focus from flag fall to line and Alan King (pictured), whereas not in the most effective of kind, definitely is aware of what he’s doing on that rating, as he has proven with the likes of Coeur De Lion successful in a first-time visor at Royal Ascot final yr.
Both method, I personally would not be venturing into double-figures to put Dino Velvet off 125 with circumstances more likely to be in his favour, so he needs to be a guess at 14/1.
I do know he has a non-winning profile of late however I’m not significantly terrified of any of the opposition right here, although the JP-owned, Dan Skelton-trained Stratford winner Imaginative and prescient Du Puy is worthy of being favorite, as she is lightly-raced and will actually kick on now getting her most popular higher floor.
I do not assume anybody missed the overly-forceful journey Debece was given on his debut for Skelton at Sandown, not least the Betfair Sportsbook who make him their early 3/1 favorite for the 3m1f125yd handicap chase (14:40).
The handicapper clocked it too, as he truly raised him 2lb for that four-and-a-half-length defeat, a race by which he traded at a low of 1.152/13 when blasting clear and leaping fantastically from the entrance.
Ridden with a contact extra restraint right here, he stays on a really workable mark – and the higher floor right here shouldn’t be a problem – however I believe the Sportsbook’s 3/1 is sufficient to warn me off for now.
And it is a horse who does have a Topham entry subsequent week, so they may even wait to run him there, I suppose. Two of this horse’s finest profession efforts have come over hurdles at Aintree, in order that has to a consideration for ante-post punters tempted in by his quick value.
Republican is one nicely handicapped horse within the 3m staying handicap hurdle (15:15) and the assessor clearly agrees as he has been very harsh in not even dropping the horse 1lb for his 18-and-a-half-length fifth to J’Ai Froid (additionally in right here) at Ascot final time, a race by which he emptied over the prolonged 2m7f on mushy floor after travelling nicely.
I’m not certain how that works – although I recognize J’Ai Froid received by 13 lengths final time and the third has gone in since, too – however I would not be too satisfied if I owned or skilled him. I might have been anticipating a bit of bit of affection.
It may nicely be that Republican will final residence on a sharper monitor on higher floor right here, however I’m not in any respect offered on the stamina entrance, so I can depart him alone, even at his double-figure value.
Dhowin is one other horse that has been on my radar this season, and I used to be disillusioned by him at Newbury final time as he did not appear to be serving to his gifted claimer there in any respect up the straight.
He’s one other horse for whom connections are perhaps contemplating headgear – he’s associated to Get Me Out Right here on the distaff facet, and that horse completed a short-head second in a Coral Cup with cheekpieces on – and that may very well be the important thing to unlocking a win in him.
Nevertheless it seems like connections are additionally involved in regards to the drying floor for this huge unit, so he’s not an ante-post betting conveyance.
Do not let Alright Sunshine go unbacked at Musselburgh
It’s at the moment good to mushy (good in locations) at Musselburgh and that’s my working assumption for Saturday too, because it seems to be chilly all week in Scotland, with some websites suggesting a little bit of rain on Wednesday.
Nonetheless, I discover Musselburgh is a monitor the place the draw may be essential so (I do know, it may be at most programs) so, as with Good Friday’s motion, I used to be initially joyful to go away this card alone till I do know all of the related info.
Be aware, initially, so stick with me right here.
There are 4 races on the field although, and my preliminary ideas in the meanwhile is that the 7f handicap (15:50) may be very tough and I positively wish to wait on the draw earlier than punting,.
Within the different three ITV races, I believed Heights Of Abraham was a good value at 12s with the Betfair Sportsbook within the 3yo 1m handicap (14:25); I positively need a tempo map and a greater deal with on the bottom earlier than I unload something within the 5f handicap (15:00); and Alright Sunshine is of apparent curiosity within the 1m6f Queen’s Cup at 15:35 on a course on which he’s 4 from 4.
I say apparent curiosity, however then I clocked the Betfair Sportsbook’s opening 20/1, and no method may I let that go unbacked and untipped.
I believe 14s or 16s would have been very reasonable.
I recognize his newest run over hurdles in a Grade 2 at Kelso was hardly the stuff of positivity and the current type of the Keith Dalgleish yard just isn’t too intelligent, however he’s absolutely no 20s poke right here, provided that monitor document, good to mushy floor might be superb for him, and his present mark of 99 offers him each likelihood.
He is usually a tough kind however he was rated 105 after successful at Ayr in 2019 and he ran a few good races final yr, too.
Except for the 4-4 Musselburgh data, I additionally think about this will need to have been a long-term plan, too, and never least as a result of his homeowners Straightline Bloodstock have a 25 per cent strike charge (17 from 67) right here over jumps – one from eight on the Flat, granted – although I might know little of them.