The frustration of Saturday’s information that Life Is Good was injured and off the Triple Crown path was palpable. The story was nonetheless creating when Twitter laid naked the sentiments of those that had been all in on his bandwagon. Or at the very least taking note of it.
“I’m unhappy to see Life Is Good off the Derby path,” was one response. “He’s a freak, and he’d have been a deserving 6-5 on Could 1.”
One customer to Las Vegas requested, “Acquired any future Derby wager concepts with Life Is Good out of the image?”
“I want Life Is Good was within the Kentucky Derby,” somebody wrote from New York state. “I used to be gonna get 3-1 on Live performance Tour.”
“Feeling unhealthy for these future Derby bettors who had Life Is Good at 2-1,” was a response from Michigan. “No, I’m not. You’re dumb in the event you wager that.”
One individual’s rue is one other individual’s schadenfreude.
Life Is Good closed at 2-1 in final month’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager, though he was nonetheless so long as 7-2 in Nevada swimming pools. That was earlier than he was recognized with “a really small chip in his left hind ankle.” That was how coach Bob Baffert described the harm Sunday to XBTV. So all these wintertime bets on Life Is Good to win the Derby hit the ground on the primary day of spring.
Solely the uninitiated have no idea that, in contrast to race-day wagers, fixed-odds futures bets are fast motion. That threat makes a long-shot payoff actually that rather more rewarding — and an early wager at brief odds that a lot much less prudent.
On the identical time, one prop grew to become a winner the second Life Is Good went to the shelf. Circa Sports activities provides yes-or-no betting with increased limits on the 4 or 5 shortest-priced decisions in its futures. Will a specific horse win the Kentucky Derby? Within the case of a “no” wager, fast motion is a bonus. It turns into a winner if the horse in query loses the Derby or doesn’t even get there.
As Life Is Good’s odds to win the Derby acquired shorter, the associated fee to put a “no” wager additionally shrunk. By the point he was taken off the board Saturday, he was -450. The $450 it price to wager that he wouldn’t win the roses become a $100 revenue. At the least it should Could 1, when the bets are formally graded and the winners paid. Life Is Good’s “no” worth ranged at any given time from -1700 to -450.
By itself benefit, a 1-17 wager may not look inviting. However mixed with different wagers, it will probably turn out to be useful. Any bettor who acquired Life Is Good final month at + 950 to win the Derby might need discovered -450 a great worth to put off the unique stake with a “no” wager.
Circa additionally provides multisport bets, so an odds-on wager for a horse to not win the Derby can be utilized to attempt to fatten a parlay.
Not that these are certain issues. Genuine, who supposedly couldn’t get 1¼ miles, swallowed the cash of skeptics who acquired him at -780 to -1900 considering he would fail to win final 12 months’s Kentucky Derby. In the meantime, the supposedly unbeatable Tiz The Regulation, 7-10 at submit time to win the roses, was 6-5 at Circa to fail. That become a really perfect hedge for individuals who acquired him in the course of the summer time at longer win odds.
The yes-or-no prop gives a substitute for the incessant grousing from fortune hunters and their acolytes about brief futures odds. For many who don’t just like the awful costs, they’ve a selection in addition to passing on them altogether. Or tweeting about them.
DERBY FUTURES: WHO’S HOT?
Sizzling Rod Charlie (+ 950 Circa, 12-1 William Hill). Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning coach Doug O’Neill might need been serving the ultimate days of a drugs suspension, however his secure was nonetheless answerable for the winner of Saturday’s Louisiana Derby. However this Oxbow colt retains an enigmatic high quality. He was 94-1 when he got here in second within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Then he was a 5-2 disappointment ending third within the Robert B. Lewis, his 3-year-old debut. He was 5-2 once more when he gained at Honest Grounds final weekend, with Joel Rosario taking him to the lead early. When he races ahead, he’s 2-for-2. When he has been greater than a size off the early lead, he’s 0-for-5. Velocity has been a giant cause six of the final 9 Kentucky Derby winners have come from California. Possibly that’s fairly actually the best way ahead for Sizzling Rod Charlie.
Collaborate (22-1, 30-1). Best Honour will appeal to many of the cash in Saturday’s Florida Derby, however this $600,000 Into Mischief colt from the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn may even be short-priced. He’s coming off a geared-down, 12½-length maiden victory going 1 mile final month at Gulfstream Park. That can also be the place he provided his most up-to-date constructive impression final week, breezing 4 furlongs in 47.05 seconds in firm with a stakes-winning filly. It was reported to be the quickest time of that day’s 51 exercises on the distance. Whether or not Collaborate was a one-hit marvel may be answered this weekend.
Rock Your World (40-1, 50-1). Bettors and bookmakers seem bullish on this horse’s probabilities to succeed going from turf to filth April 3 within the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. The $600,000 colt sired by Sweet Journey gained his first two races for coach John Sadler, setting the tempo in his stakes debut and stalking the lead going a mile in final month’s Pasadena Stakes. Sadler is assured Rock Your World can get the 1⅛-mile distance of the Santa Anita Derby. With the absence of Life Is Good, profitable the race might need gotten a bit of simpler.
DERBY FUTURES: WHO’S NOT?
Mandaloun (25-1, 30-1). His sixth-place effort because the 6-5 favourite within the Louisiana Derby despatched him crashing again to earth. For as soon as this Into Mischief colt didn’t reply to jockey Florent Geroux’s urging. He pale from an in depth third to complete sixth, 11¾ lengths behind Sizzling Rod Charlie. Coach Brad Cox mentioned he may nominate Mandaloun for the Lexington Stakes on April 10 at Keeneland simply in case he thinks he wants one other race. There’s actually no want for extra qualifying factors. If something, Cox wants to determine what went unsuitable at New Orleans.
Proxy (50-1, 45-1). The horse who completed second within the Lecomte and Risen Star had blinkers added by coach Mike Stidham. He then went the unsuitable manner within the Louisiana Derby, ending fourth. Possibly getting banged round on each side firstly of the race discouraged him, particularly since he couldn’t see the visitors on both facet. With seven main preps left, the 34 factors already earned by this Tapit colt put him on the qualifying bubble. Whether or not Proxy has what it takes to win the roses, then, may very well be a moot level.
Lamutanaatty (300-1, 110-1). Coach Chad Brown acquired this debut winner again to common exercises this month however seems to haven’t any race in thoughts for him. Purchased for $700,000 by Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell Secure, the Into Mischief colt (sure, one other one) has not been nominated for any of the remaining Derby factors preps. This late in March, outta web site may imply outta time.
Along with this report, Ron Flatter’s racing column is obtainable each Friday morning at VSiN.com and extra ceaselessly for protection of massive occasions. You can too hear the Ron Flatter Racing Pod posted Friday mornings at VSiN.com/podcasts. Gulfstream Park and Fox Sports activities TV analyst Acacia Courtney previews Saturday’s Florida Derby. Ralph Siraco of Race Day Las Vegas handicaps weekend races. The RFRP is obtainable for obtain Friday and free subscription now at iHeart, Apple, Google, Spotify, Stitcher and at VSiN.com/podcasts. It’s sponsored by 1/ST BET.