It’s no secret that Kentucky Derby favorites this time of 12 months have a tendency to not win on the large day. It doesn’t bode effectively for Life Is Good that 40 of the final 41 prime selections on New 12 months’s Day failed on the primary Saturday in Might — or September.
Aside from Road Sense in 2007, the place have been the eventual victories within the wintertime betting markets?
Presently final 12 months, Genuine was 16-1 at William Hill Nevada. That was an enormous drop from the 65-1 at which he closed within the first pool of the Churchill Downs pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager. A win within the Sham final January modified every little thing. After which it modified over again with the pandemic. Utilizing that historical past now ought to include a warning label.
Two years in the past, Nation Home was nowhere to be discovered till he confirmed up at 30-1 in March at William Hill. He closed 29-1 that month within the KDFW. These costs turned out to be as improper as may very well be in opposition to the 65-1 post-time odds that ultimately paid off when stewards acquired accomplished taking down Most Safety.
Three years in the past, Justify was famously nonetheless ready to be raced out of Bob Baffert’s barn. It’s a well-worn story that when he lastly confirmed up in Las Vegas futures, Johnny Avello hung a 300-1 worth on him and took a $500 wager that was a $150,000 winner.
What does all this imply within the grand scheme of betting on the 2021 Derby? Not a lot if which means fading Life Is Good. It’s far simpler to tear down the favourite than to search out the rose-covered needle in a haystack of greater than 200 selections within the Derby futures. Primarily based on current historical past, who actually is aware of if the winner is even listed but?
Circa Sports activities will ultimately submit yes-no props on the shortest-priced favorites for the Derby, maybe late this month. That can give bettors the choice of shedding a few of their danger on different horses by betting that Life Is Good or Important High quality won’t win Might 1 at Churchill Downs.
Till then, the seek for that elusive winner continues.
DERBY FUTURES: WHO’S HOT?
Mandaloun (40-1 Circa, 35-1 William Hill). The 2 Las Vegas bookmakers took turns shortening the percentages for this 2-for-2 colt sired by main stallion Into Mischief and skilled by would-be Eclipse Award winner Brad Cox. They might be bracing themselves for a run of motion since, regardless of drawing Put up 10, Mandaloun is the possible favourite in Saturday’s Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on the Honest Grounds in New Orleans. The 8½-furlong factors prep could also be his first time going round two turns, however it’s more likely to be his third time because the bettors’ selection in a race. He could also be in Important High quality’s shadow within the Cox barn, however Mandaloun has given his connections cause to be optimistic this spring. What’s extra, he’s a homebred owned by Juddmonte Farms, whose patriarch Prince Abdullah died this week.
Quantity (40-1 Circa, 45-1 William Hill). Florida Panthers proprietor Vinny Viola received the Kentucky Derby 4 years in the past with At all times Dreaming, a colt he despatched to coach Todd Pletcher. They joined forces with Vitamin Water magnate Mike Repole and received the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Basic with Vino Rosso. Now the three have come along with this $110,000 Curlin colt. Quantity lastly hit the monitor at Palm Seaside Downs for morning exercises in October, and he constructed these right into a 5¾-length debut win Christmas weekend at Gulfstream Park. Pletcher didn’t spell out any agency plans, however since Quantity was again on the monitor figuring out this week, his subsequent race can’t be far off.
Keepmeinmind (50-1 Circa, 40-1 William Hill). A 3-year-old debut is anticipated subsequent month for this Laoban colt that broke his maiden with a Thanksgiving week win within the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes at Churchill Downs. Educated by Robertino Diodoro, he has by no means been out of the cash in his 4 begins, probably the most spectacular of which can have been his third-place end at 30-1 within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Was it an overlay that day at Keeneland or an underlay at 2-1 within the Kentucky Jockey Membership? It in all probability was not each. One factor working in opposition to Keepmeinmind for futures bettors is his deep-closing fashion. Nation Home however, that’s traditionally a tactic that doesn’t work within the Derby.
DERBY FUTURES: WHO’S NOT?
Willy Boi (200-1 Circa, 200-1 William Hill). It appears like Las Vegas doesn’t know what to do with this 2-for-2 gelding skilled by Jeff Engler. William Hill opened him at 150-1 in December earlier than he drifted to his present odds. Circa posted him at 200-1 final week. On the one hand, he was a dash winner at Gulfstream Park final month in his debut and once more Thursday in a $40,000 race for “non-twos.” Alternatively, his bloodlines will not be precisely regal. He’s by Uncaptured, an honest Florida stallion now standing in Korea who was on and off the Derby path in his racing days. He’s out of a Sure It’s True mare that was a sprinter in her time. Is he a course horse? Or is there extra right here than meets the attention?
Lookin For Hassle (300-1 Circa, 250-1 William Hill). This goes to point out that Into Mischief doesn’t have an ideal stallion report. Not that expectations have been universally excessive for this colt that was out of a Speightstown mare. The one time he was favored in his seven begins, he received. That was final summer time at Saratoga for coach Mike Maker, who overachieves with lower-level horses. Lookin For Hassle has since had a second and three thirds in 5 begins, principally lower-level stakes — and all sprints. Proprietor-breeder Invoice Butler will need to have had excessive hopes for him, sending him via the gross sales ring each as a weanling and a yearling solely to have his bold $285,000 and $300,000 asking costs go unattained.
Seminole Seaside (400-1 Circa, 200-1 William Hill). This $240,000 colt by Ghostzapper out of a Sensible Strike mare got here up empty Saturday, ending a distant seventh in a maiden mile at Gulfstream Park. Now 0-for-2, he was way more aggressive in his debut, shedding by a head in a 7-furlong dash in October at Keeneland. Ian Wilkes, who received the Breeders’ Cup Basic in 2012 with Fort Larned, trains Seminole Seaside for Mike Mackin’s Fortunate Seven Secure that could be finest recognized for Artful Shaw’s 2001 win within the Insurgent. The Derby appears out of this horse’s league.
Along with this report, Ron Flatter’s racing column is out there each Friday morning at VSiN.com. It’s also possible to hear the Ron Flatter Racing Pod posted Friday mornings at VSiN.com/podcasts. On this week’s episode William Hill US CEO Joe Asher talks concerning the making of Kentucky Derby futures, coach Michael Stidham discusses Manor Home and Proxy on Saturday’s Lecomte Stakes card, and DraftKings Sportsbook’s Johnny Avello handicaps weekend races. The RFRP is out there for obtain and free subscription at Apple, Google, iHeart, Spotify and Stitcher. It’s sponsored by 1/ST BET.