Horse-by-horse evaluation and unique betting suggestions for Preakness – VSiN Unique Information – Information

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1. RAM (LUKAS/SANTANA JR.) – 30/1

What’s Preakness with out ‘Coach?’ Corridor of Fame coach D. Wayne Lukas has pulled off some main upsets at Previous Hilltop, however this shouldn’t be one among them. This son of American Pharoah has distinguished himself in his final two races, profitable a maiden $50k claiming warmth and a first-level allowance take a look at. Earlier than and together with these, there’s nothing in his previous efficiency traces to counsel he can threaten in right here. Love ya, Coach, however we’ll go.

2. KEEPMEINMIND (DIODORO/COHEN) – 15/1

At two this man displayed a world of expertise. He completed within the cash in a maiden race, the Gr. 1 Breeders Futurity and the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He additionally lastly received the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership as a maiden! That’s a powerful resume. Heading into his 3-year-old season he was reportedly knocked off schedule by poor climate in Arkansas and hasn’t regained his greatest kind. The massive query with this one is: Was he a precocious 2-year-old that didn’t develop a lot at three or did the missed coaching actually have an effect on him? This son of low-profile sire Laoban ran properly within the Kentucky Derby. After blowing the beginning and racing in final of 19, he was one of many few within the area to shut floor within the stretch whereas about 10 lanes vast. Finally, he completed seventh, lower than 9 lengths behind winner and 9-5 Preakness favourite #3 Medina Spirit and only a neck behind 5-1 Preakness foe #5 Midnight Bourbon. This man has the look of a Preakness exotics worth play. He might want to present extra velocity than he did in Louisville, however he appears ready to run a giant race at a giant worth. Use him the place you possibly can, particularly beneath in exotics.

3. MEDINA SPIRIT (BAFFERT/VELAZQUEZ) – 9/5

At this writing, he’s nonetheless the Kentucky Derby winner, pending extra testing, a potential official disqualification and potential subsequent lawsuits. What he did on the racetrack Derby Day was spectacular. He went to the entrance below Corridor-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez, rationed his velocity over a mile and one-quarter, and fought like hell when threatened by a quartet of succesful challengers. In six begins, he hasn’t permitted a horse to go him when it counts. On the reverse facet, the as soon as $1,000 yearling and $35,000 2-year-old by Protonico hasn’t handed a foe when it counts, both. He’s by no means been worse than second and solely been defeated by top-class foes. He doesn’t determine to have a straightforward lead on this race, although. Stablemate Live performance Tour ought to see to that. Additionally, the Kentucky Derby effort most likely could have taken one thing out of him. We count on him to run properly, however not practically in addition to he did in Kentucky and he received’t be a lot worth. Use him for those who should. Daring gamers anticipating a response from the Derby effort will toss him and swing for the fences.

4. CROWDED TRADE (BROWN/CASTELLANO) – 10/1

Eligible to begin within the Kentucky Derby based mostly on Factors, coach Chad Brown (like Baffert with #10 Live performance Tour) elected to skip a Roses attempt to aimed for Preakness with this one as a substitute. The prolonged Derby mile and one-quarter distance was provided as a part of the explanation for the transfer. The colt has had simply three profession races and his final efficiency within the Gr. 2 Wooden wasn’t electrifying as he was third to Derby also-rans Bourbonic and Dynamic One. This son of Greater than Prepared ran properly however was caught late within the Gr. 3 Gotham to be second by a nostril. He’s liable to be racing from off of what may very well be a good early Preakness tempo. He appears to have expertise however could also be in a bit deep based mostly on his abbreviated expertise. Exotics solely.

5. MIDNIGHT BOURBON (ASMUSSEN/I. ORTIZ JR.) – 5/1

He’s probably the most skilled runner within the area with eight begins. In these appearances, at 5 totally different tracks, he’s managed a pair of wins—a maiden race and the Gr. 3 Lecomte–two seconds and three thirds. His solely off-the-board end got here final out when sixth, crushed lower than 9 lengths within the Kentucky Derby. In Louisville, below Mike Smith, he didn’t present his regular early velocity however did properly to complete with curiosity. His Thoro-Graph velocity determine sample is attention-grabbing as a result of he’s by no means taken a backward step and his races are quick sufficient to slot in right here. That’s an awesome signal for a 3-year-old colt. One downside is that he hasn’t actually proven a combating spirit on the conclusion of races. Derby apart, the one occasions he’s ever handed a horse or gained floor within the stretch have been in his maiden win and within the Lecomte—each digital wire-to-wire efforts. With a good break, he’s not quick sufficient to outrun #10 Live performance Tour early and doesn’t seem swift sufficient to comfortably clear #3 Medina Spirit both. Nonetheless, we count on him to run properly and the worth may very well be proper. Embody him in your performs, particularly in exotics.

6. ROMBAUER (MCCARTHY/PRAT) – 12/1

Connections of this son of Twirling Sweet get pleasure from a little bit of a free roll in Preakness based mostly on an El Camino Actual victory going one mile and one-eighth on synthetics at Golden Gate. That tally earned the colt a no-fees berth within the run for the crab desserts. Final out, the colt confirmed some spunk by ending third behind Derby favourite Important High quality and Derby also-ran Extremely Motivated. This colt is one other that was eligible to begin within the Derby however handed for Preakness. Coach Michael McCarthy does good work and jockey Prat is among the nation’s greatest. General, this man is shifting in the best path and may very well be included on the underside of superfectas at a giant worth. He has no early velocity and, if issues get heated up entrance, he’ll be ending with curiosity. Backside of Exotics at greatest.

7. FRANCE GO DE INA (MORI/ROSARIO) – 20/1

This man final began within the Gr. 2 UAE Derby in Dubai in March. He’s no stranger to journey; bred and born in Kentucky, raced in Japan, Dubai and, quickly, america. A greater than four-length winner of two of three begins at Hanshin in Japan at one mile and one-eighth, he and Preakness jockey Joel Rosario broke slowly within the Dubai area of 14 and just about misplaced all probability. They closed floor to be sixth, crushed greater than 10 lengths. It’s tough to gauge how a lot expertise this son of Will Take Cost may need however we’ll have to observe this Japan-by-way-of-Dubai import beat us. Throughout a Pimlico breeze Wednesday, he stumbled and misplaced his rider. Horse and rider have been reportedly ‘high-quality.’ There are too many different identified components that look good. Cross.

8. UNBRIDLED HONOR (PLETCHER/SAEZ) – 15/1

Newly minted Corridor-of-Fame coach Todd Pletcher’s not identified for working horses in Preakness. This one completed second final out within the Lexington Stakes behind Derby also-ran King Fury. It was a good effort, however he’ll want a bit higher to threaten in right here. He broke maiden going two turns at Tampa Bay Downs in his third begin. He has no early velocity and has a win and a second to his credit score in 5 begins. Cross.

9. RISK TAKING (BROWN/J. ORTIZ) – 15/1

After some cautious consideration by coach Chad Brown, this son of Medaglia d’Oro was added to the Preakness roster. Scratched, as morning-line favourite, from final Saturday’s Gr. 3 Peter Pan at Belmont, connections imagine this colt will get pleasure from racing two turns and on the one mile and three-sixteenths Preakness distance. Threat Taking, a considerably appropriate identify, has had simply 5 begins—three at two and two at three—with a maiden mile one one-eighth win at Aqueduct in December and a Gr. 3 Withers tally over the identical floor and distance in February. Final out he upset as favourite within the Gr. 2 Wooden. Coach Brown notes that for those who draw a line by the colt’s final race, he suits in Preakness based mostly on numbers. Brown’s not incorrect. If this colt have been to return to his Withers Thoro-Graph determine in Preakness (a little bit of an ask, however not not possible), he’d have a legit shot. Respect for the Wither’s Thoro-Graph determine and coach Brown’s judgement drive us to make use of this man some. Sprinkle him in wagers at what needs to be a good worth. Exotics use.

10. CONCERT TOUR (BAFFERT/SMITH)  – 5/2

A prime Kentucky Derby prospect till a disappointing third-place end as heavy favourite within the Arkansas Derby induced coach Bob Baffert to change plans and to skip the Louisville social gathering with him. Might have been one of the best factor for the son of Road Sense’s Preakness possibilities. He’s seemed high-quality coaching for the race and brings a sparking document of three wins in 4 begins into the race, together with the Gr.2 San Vicente and Gr. 2 Insurgent. He’s obtained velocity and a Corridor of Fame jockey in Mike Smith to dole it out. Rely him in nearly all the pieces you do wager-wise in Preakness. He ought to have sufficient velocity to get to the early lead by Pimlico’s first flip. He’s the ‘One to Beat’ however not unbeatable.

BOTTOM LINE: 

That is an intriguing race as a result of Derby winner and morning line 9-5 favourite #3 Medina Spirit enters Preakness with a bullseye on his again and tornado-level drama whirling round him. We’re not in opposition to him in Preakness due to any of that. We expect he could have fired his bests shot within the Derby. He’s been a gradual performer with a high-quality resume, however he received’t make a snug lead in right here and off that large effort within the Derby he may very well be weak at a brief worth. Stablemate #10 Live performance Tour ought to achieve the early lead and should take this group a good distance. He’s quick, contemporary, evenly raced and proficient. Jockey Mike Smith might want to get him working from the far exterior and there’s an opportunity the colt might get too keen, too early. In that case, issues would get attention-grabbing. #3 Medina Spirit most likely will observe that one in live performance with #5 Midnight Bourbon.

One to Beat: #10 Live performance Tour

Ought to Run Effectively: #2 Keepmeinmind, #5 Midnight Bourbon

In opposition to: #3 Medina Spirit

Exotics at a Value: #4 Crowded Commerce, #9 Threat Taking

THE TICKETS: 

$2 Trifecta ($16 Complete)

First: #10

Second: #2, #5
Third: #2, #3, #4 #5, #9

$1 Trifecta ($24 Complete)

First: #2, #5, #10

Second: #2, #5, #10
Third: #2, #4, #3, #5, #9, #10



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